Work

Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics

Year: 2020

Type: article

Abstract: To put estimates of COVID-19 mortality into perspective, we estimate age-specific mortality for an epidemic claiming for illustrative purposes 1 million US lives, with results approximately scalable over a broad range of deaths. We calculate the impact on period life expectancy (down 2.94 y) and remaining life years (11.7 y per death). Avoiding 1.75 million deaths or 20.5 trillion person years of life lost would be valued at $10.2 to $17.5 trillion. The age patterns of COVID-19 mortality in other countries are quite similar and increase at rates close to each country's rate for all-cause mortality. The scenario of 1 million COVID-19 deaths is similar in scale to that of the decades-long HIV/AIDS and opioid-overdose epidemics but considerably smaller than that of the Spanish flu of 1918. Unlike HIV/AIDS and opioid epidemics, the COVID-19 deaths are concentrated in a period of months rather than spread out over decades.

Source: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2006392117

Authors: Joshua R. Goldstein, Ronald D. Lee

Institution: University of California, Berkeley

Language: English

Topic: Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management

Subfield: Demography

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: hybrid

Funders: Berkeley Population Center, University of California Berkeley, National Institute on Aging, Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development