Relative Importance of Greenhouse Gases, Sulfate, Organic Carbon, and Black Carbon Aerosol for South Asian Monsoon Rainfall Changes
Year: 2020
Type: article
Abstract: The contribution of individual aerosol species and greenhouse gases to precipitation changes during the South Asian summer monsoon is uncertain. Mechanisms driving responses to anthropogenic forcings need further characterization. We use an atmosphere‐only climate model to simulate the fast response of the summer monsoon to different anthropogenic aerosol types and to anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Without normalization, sulfate is the largest driver of precipitation change between 1850 and 2000, followed by black carbon and greenhouse gases. Normalized by radiative forcing, the most effective driver is black carbon. The precipitation and moisture budget responses to combinations of aerosol species perturbed together scale as a linear superposition of their individual responses. We use both a circulation‐based and moisture budget‐based argument to identify mechanisms of aerosol and greenhouse gas induced changes to precipitation and find that in all cases the dynamic contribution is the dominant driver to precipitation change in the monsoon region.
Source: Geophysical Research Letters
DOI: 10.1029/2020gl088363
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: bronze
Awards: THE SCOPE OF THE RESEARCH CONDUCTED UNDER THIS COOPERATIVE AGREEMENT REQUIRES THE INTEGRATION OF THE NECESSARY EXPERTISE REQUIRED TO TACKLE MULTIDISCIPLINARY MULTIFACETED PROBLEMS INVOLVING THE OBSERVATION AND MODELING OF THE EARTH'S CLIMATE SYSTEM INCLUDING CLIMATE VARIABILITY LONG-TERM CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE. THE COLLABORATION BETWEEN SCIENTISTS AT THE GODDARD INSTITUTE FOR SPACE STUDIES AND THE CENTER FOR CLIMATE SYSTEMS RESEARCH (GISS/CCSR) FULFILLS THIS SCOPE IN LARGE PART THROUGH THE DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF COMPLEX COMPUTATIONAL EARTH SYSTEM MODELS. CCSR PERSONNEL EMPLOY OBSERVATIONS AND SIMULATION RESULTS TO ADVANCE THE STUDY OF CLIMATE SENSITIVITY TO BOTH NATURAL AND ANTHROPOGENIC FORCINGS. THEY CONTRIBUTE TO NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ASSESSMENTS PROVIDING AN IMPROVED UNDERSTANDING OF THE PHYSICAL BASIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AS WELL AS RESEARCH INTO THE AREA OF CLIMATE IMPACTS AS THEY RELATE TO SOCIETAL VULNERABILITIES FUTURE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES AND MITIGATION POTENTIAL. GISS/CCSR WAS ESTABLISHED WITH THE OBJECTIVE OF PROVIDING AN ENHANCED UNDERSTANDING OF THE EARTH'S CLIMATE SENSITIVITY CLIMATE VARIABILITY AS WELL AS THE FORCING AND FEEDBACK MECHANISMS THAT CONTROL THEM. HOWEVER THE CENTER'S OBJECTIVES ALSO INCLUDE RESEARCH ON THE TYPES OF CLIMATE-RELATED CHANGES THAT SOCIETIES WILL FACE DURING THE COMING DECADES TO HELP DETERMINE THE SEVERITY OF THE IMPACTS ACROSS DIVERSE SECTORS SUCH AS AGRICULTURE PUBLIC HEALTH AND TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE. IN ADDITION TO BASIC RESEARCH GISS/CCSR SCIENTISTS WORK INTERACTIVELY WITH STAKEHOLDERS TO GENERATE ACTIONABLE INFORMATION THAT WILL HELP THE PUBLIC BECOME MORE AWARE OF CLIMATE-RELATED RISKS BECOME MORE RESILIENT TO THE IMPACTS OF FUTURE CLIMATE-RELATED PROBLEMS AND TO INCREASE THE NATION'S CAPACITY TO SEIZE OPPORTUNITIES THAT COULD BE PRESENTED IF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES CAN BE RENDERED MORE PREDICTABLE., Understanding Forced Asian Monsoon Changes in Observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) Models
OpenAlex ID: W3022206437