Year: 2015
Type: article
Abstract: Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing principally to the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable based on output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to revised output gap estimates. These explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions.
Source: Russian Journal of Economics
Authors: Francesco Grigoli, Alexander Herman, Andrew Swiston, Gabriel Di Bella
Institution: International Monetary Fund
Language: English
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W3023748296