Year: 2020
Type: preprint
Abstract: We address the problem of learning a decision policy from observational data of past decisions in contexts with features and associated outcomes. The past policy maybe unknown and in safety-critical applications, such as medical decision support, it is of interest to learn robust policies that reduce the risk of outcomes with high costs. In this paper, we develop a method for learning policies that reduce tails of the cost distribution at a specified level and, moreover, provide a statistically valid bound on the cost of each decision. These properties are valid under finite samples -- even in scenarios with uneven or no overlap between features for different decisions in the observed data -- by building on recent results in conformal prediction. The performance and statistical properties of the proposed method are illustrated using both real and synthetic data.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Institution: Uppsala University
Language: English
Subfield: Statistics and Probability
Field: Mathematics
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W3033351689