Prior hypotheses or regularization allow inference of diversification histories from extant timetrees
Year: 2020
Type: preprint
Abstract: Phylogenies of extant species are widely used to study past diversification dynamics 1 . The most common approach is to formulate a set of candidate models representing evolutionary hypotheses for how and why speciation and extinction rates in a clade changed over time, and compare those models through their probability to have generated the corresponding empirical tree. Recently, Louca & Pennell 2 reported the existence of an infinite number of ‘congruent’ models with potentially markedly different diversification dynamics, but equal likelihood, for any empirical tree (see also Lambert & Stadler 3 ). Here we explore the implications of these results, and conclude that they neither undermine the hypothesis-driven model selection procedure widely used in the field nor show that speciation and extinction dynamics cannot be investigated from extant timetrees using a data-driven procedure.
Authors: Hélène Morlon, Florian Hartig, Stéphane Robin
Language: English
Subfield: Paleontology
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W3040237290