Work

Real‐Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty*

Year: 2023

Type: article

Abstract: GDP is measured with error. But data uncertainty is rarely communicated quantitatively in real‐time. An exception are the fan charts for historical real GDP growth published by the Bank of England. To assess how well data uncertainty is understood, we first evaluate the accuracy of the historical fan charts. We find that data uncertainties can be accurately quantified, even without judgement, using past revisions data. Secondly, we conduct an online survey to gauge perceptions of GDP data uncertainty across a wider set of experts. Our results call for greater communication of data uncertainties to anchor experts' dispersed expectations.

Source: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics

DOI: 10.1111/obes.12542

Authors: Ana Beatriz Galvão, James Mitchell

Institutions: University of Warwick, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Language: English

Topic: Monetary Policy and Economic Impact

Subfield: General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,550

Funder: Office for National Statistics