Discontinuous response of the epidemic peak to mitigation measures
Year: 2020
Type: preprint
Abstract: As the COVID-19 epidemic spreads around the globe, countries rely on non-pharmaceutical interventions to slow the outbreak. An overarching aim is to flatten the epidemic curve so as to not exceed health care capacity limits. Inherent to this strategy is the assumption that with increasing mitigation strength the peak of the epidemic curve continuously decreases. We show that in any setting, where intervention measures include suspect testing and contact tracing, this assumption is incorrect and the process is discontinuous. This discontinuity is linked to a super-exponential growth phase and it considerably raises the stakes in epidemic control: The decisiveness of mitigation measures is not merely a question of 'flattening the curve' anymore but it sets the dividing line between effective suppression and a catastrophic outbreak.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Authors: Davide Scarselli, Budanur Nb, Hof B
Language: English
Subfield: Modeling and Simulation
Field: Mathematics
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W3045443600