Work

Assessing Future Changes of Climate Extreme Events in the CORDEX-MENA Region Using Regional Climate Model ALADIN-Climate

Year: 2020

Type: article

Abstract: This study investigates future changes of temperature, precipitation, and associated extreme events in the MENA region using Regional Climate Model ALADIN-Climate over the CORDEX-MENA domain. Model capabilities to reproduce key observed regional climate features are first assessed, including heat waves, drought and high precipitation extremes. Projected changes indicate the intensification of heat waves number, duration and magnitude, and contrasted precipitation changes. A drying is projected in the north-west and moistening in the north-east along the Mediterranean side of the region. Projected regional warming is found at the rate of about 0.2 °C/decade to 0.5 °C/decade over land depending on the scenario. Drought is expected to increase in the northern half of the region independently from the index used, but with a higher rate in the case of the index accounting for both the effect of precipitation and temperature changes. ALADIN-Climate results corroborate previous studies projecting the MENA region to host global hot spots for drought in the late twenty-first century.

Source: Earth Systems and Environment

DOI: 10.1007/s41748-020-00169-3

Authors: Fatima Driouech, Khalid ElRhaz, Willfran Moufouma-Okia, Khadija Arjdal, Saloua Balhane

Institutions: Université Mohammed VI Polytechnique, Direction de la Météorologie Nationale, World Meteorological Organization

Language: English

Topic: Climate variability and models

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,260