When do we attain our objectives? : On the role of indicators, values and uncertainty in environmental management
Year: 2020
Type: dissertation
Abstract: In environmental policy and management, the main objectives are to protect and enhance the environmental status so that we can preserve the services and benefits ecosystems provide for the society. To evaluate whether the management objectives are met, there is a need to measure the prevailing status of the system in focus, and to define the desirable versus the undesirable state. How these tasks are implemented will impact our judgement about whether the system needs restoration or not, or if ongoing or planned exploitation of natural resources can be seen as sustainable. Indicators thus provide means for the precise definition of the objectives by setting measurable target states to be achieved. However, it is not straightforward to judge, whether or not the objectives have been attained. The first question is, what we should measure, i.e. what is an appropriate indicator. The second question is, what the sufficiently good status of the indicator is, i.e. how to define the target level. Third, after we have decided what to measure and how to interpret the measurements, we have to think, how the different decision criteria are weighted in relation to each other. This thesis approaches the above-mentioned questions from the multidisciplinary and probabilistic perspective, providing novel ideas and tools. Maintaining biodiversity is one of the key objectives mentioned in the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Article I of the thesis reviews alternative metrics for measuring (i.e. indicating) biodiversity and discusses the ecological, economic and sociocultural perspectives to its valuation. The paper suggests integrating these three perspectives into a multi-objective framework. Furthermore, a formal guideline for decision support is proposed when quantitatively evaluating alternative management decisions against biodiversity. Article II elaborates the uncertainty related to the process of determining the prevailing status of an indicator as well as the boundary value used as the threshold between a desirable (Good Environmental Status “GES”) and a non-desirable state (“Sub-GES”). The current indicator-based management protocols such as the MSFD and the BSAP have not acknowledged the uncertainty of the GES boundary value, instead, the boundary value is given as a fixed value with no associated uncertainty. Article II presents an alternative way to define the target level and assess the prevailing status of one ecological indicator, the abundance of perch (Perca fluviatilis) - an indicator adopted by both BSAP and MSFD to represent the status of coastal fish communities in the central and northern Baltic Sea. A Bayesian model is developed to evaluate the prevailing relative abundance and the GES boundary for it while acknowledging the uncertainty related to these estimates. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is an approach used to frame and formally solve decision-making problems with multiple, often contradictory objectives. As society at large covers a variety of interests towards the services and benefits that ecosystems provide, the unavoidable trade-offs in environmental multi-objective decision-making processes easily lead to conflicts. In Article III, a Bayesian approach is developed to quantify the uncertainty about the stakeholder groups’ consensus concerning the valuation of ecological attributes. When integrated into a MCDA model, it is possible to visualise what we know about the level of disagreement or agreement and analyse the optimal decisions from the perspective of each group. The qualitative verbal management objectives (e.g. the “sustainable development” or “good environmental status”) are vague in their precise meaning and can thus complexify the societal discourse. Indicators can be thought to specify their definitions. By setting quantitative metrics for expressing the objectives and defining the rules for their weighing, they allow transparent discussion and judgement whether the objectives are actually met or not. However, the use of indicators does not remove the uncertainty nor the value judgements related to environmental decisions. The inherent uncertainty that arises from the limited knowledge of the system - both the ecological and social part of it - cannot be avoided. However, by adopting a multi-disciplinary perspective which utilises modern modelling methods and normative decision theory, this thesis demonstrate a probabilistic view on the issue and develops tools to tackle it.
Source: Työväentutkimus Vuosikirja
Author: Mirka Laurila-Pant
Language: English
Subfield: Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Life on land
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W3083562410