An ex ante impact assessment of the farm level impacts of genetically modified (GM) sugarcane to contain insect resistant (IR) and herbicide tolerant (HT) genes in the Eston sugarcane supply region of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.
Year: 2019
Type: dissertation
Abstract: Notwithstanding public contention about GM crops, commonly defined as crops for which \nthe genes have been engineered by inserting genes from other organisms such as \nbacteria or animals into their DNAs, there is a general consensus in the agricultural \neconomics literature that adoption of GM crops has generally benefitted the farm sector \nthrough increased yields, reduced use of agrochemicals and profit gains for farmers. The \nSouth African sugar industry is a high-quality competitive producer of sugar. Nonetheless, it \nis under financial stress, which has been partly attributed to increased prevalence of various \npests, notably eldana and cynodon grass. Genetic modification of sugarcane has been \nadvocated as a strategy to partially counter these threats. \nThe South African Sugar Research Institute (SASRI) is currently developing an insect resistant \n(IR) and herbicide tolerant (HT) genetically modified (GM) sugarcane cultivar that is suited to \ncoastal production regions. Some sugarcane cultivars suitable for production in coastal areas \nare also suited to commercial production in the inland regions where eldana and cynodon are \nalso prevalent (e.g. the Eston cane supply region). This study investigates the socio-economic \nimpacts of GM sugarcane in the Eston cane supply area in KwaZulu-Natal, assuming that the \nGM sugarcane cultivar is suitable for commercialization in the Eston area. In the Eston area, \nlarge-scale and smallholder growers produce 95% and 5% of sugarcane, respectively. Large \nscale farmers in the region were aggregated into three representative farms to account for \nclimatic variation within the area. A fourth represents smallholder growers in the region. \nData for representative farm models were collected through focus group discussions with \nSASRI experts and commercial farmers. In this study, GM sugarcane is modified on the N52 \ncultivar because it fits the desired traits (high yields, and resistance to diseases and \ndrought tolerance) of GM cane. Microsoft Excel was used to compile enterprise budgets of \nGM cane and conventional cane to compute their gross margins. Furthermore, Linear \nProgramming (LP) farm planning models were compiled for each representative farm to \ndetermine the likelihood of GM cane adoption and the risks associated with the technology. \nThe baseline scenario, “without” GM cane was compared with the GM cane scenario to \nanalyze impact on farm decisions, ceteris paribus. In addition, focus group discussions with \nsmallholders were held to gauge their demand for GM cultivars of sugarcane. \nResults show that GM cane will be adopted on all four representative farms. Large scale \nfarmers will save up to 29%, 75% and 49,3% on weed control at planting, ratoon management \nand on eldana control per hectare per annum, respectively. Farmers will also achieve up to a \n34.5% share change in gross margin per ha per annum. The LP output shows that GM cane \nwill perform well even in poorer soils: steep and marginal poor soils. Farmers and farm workers \nwill also benefit from GM through sustainable farming and environmental conservation \nbecause less agrochemicals such as imazapyr will be used to control pests. Furthermore, \nhigher yields on GM cultivars are expected to increase employment because ratoon \nmanagement and harvesting will require more labours owing to higher yields. \nKeywords: ex ante, eldana, cynodon, genetically modified, insect resistant, herbicide tolerant, \nlinear programming
Author: Celumusa Bhekithemba. Mthimkhulu
Language: English
Subfield: Plant Science
Domain: Life Sciences
SDG: Zero hunger
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W3091090018