Evaluating the impact of curfews and other measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in French Guiana
Year: 2021
Type: article
Abstract: While general lockdowns have proven effective to control SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, they come with enormous costs for society. It is therefore essential to identify control strategies with lower social and economic impact. Here, we report and evaluate the control strategy implemented during a large SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in June-July 2020 in French Guiana that relied on curfews, targeted lockdowns, and other measures. We find that the combination of these interventions coincided with a reduction in the basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 from 1.7 to 1.1, which was sufficient to avoid hospital saturation. We estimate that thanks to the young demographics, the risk of hospitalisation following infection was 0.3 times that of metropolitan France and that about 20% of the population was infected by July. Our model projections are consistent with a recent seroprevalence study. The study showcases how mathematical modelling can be used to support healthcare planning in a context of high uncertainty.
Source: Nature Communications
Institutions: Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Institut Pasteur, Génomique évolutive, modélisation et santé, Sorbonne Université, Santé Publique France, Inserm, University of French Guiana, Centre Hospitalier Andrée Rosemon, Centre d'Investigation Clinique Antilles Guyane, Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, University of Cambridge, Cambridge University Press
Language: English
Subfield: Modeling and Simulation
Field: Mathematics
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $4,885
Awards: G1144940652, G1979782309, Household transmission investigation study for SARS-CoV-2 in French Guiana, G282427092, G3256177976, Institut Convergences pour l’étude de l’Emergence des Pathologies au Travers des Individus et des populatiONs, G7240651115, G7376787254, Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases, G8670608220
OpenAlex ID: W3135770674