Predicting quantity and quality of life with the Future Elderly Model
Year: 2020
Type: article
Abstract: The Future Elderly Model (FEM) is a microsimulation model designed to forecast health status, longevity, and a variety of economic outcomes. Compared to traditional actuarial models, microsimulation models provide greater opportunities for policy forecasting and richer detail, but they typically build upon smaller samples of data that may mitigate forecasting accuracy. We perform validation analyses of the FEM's mortality and quality of life forecasts using a version of the FEM estimated exclusively on early waves of data from the Health and Retirement Study. First, we compare FEM mortality and longevity projections to the actual mortality and longevity experience observed over the same period of time. We also compare the FEM results to actuarial forecasts of mortality and longevity during the same time. We find that FEM projections are generally in line with observed mortality rates and closely match longevity. Then, we assess the FEM's performance at predicting quality of life and longitudinal outcomes, two features missing from traditional actuarial models. Our analysis suggests the FEM performs at least as well as actuarial forecasts of mortality, while providing policy simulation features that are not available in actuarial models.
Source: Health Economics
DOI: 10.1002/hec.4169
Institution: University of Southern California
Language: English
Subfield: Demography
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
Funder: National Institute on Aging
Awards: G1560698330, Ensuring Access to Novel Alzheimer’s and Dementia Treatments: Evaluating Innovative Payment Approaches, University of Southern California Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) and Alzheimer’s Disease-Related Dementias (ADRD) Resource Center for Minority Aging Research (USC AD/ADRD RCMAR), Health and Retirement Study: Yrs 35-40, USC-Yale Roybal Center for Behavioral Interventions in Aging
OpenAlex ID: W3092264974