Improving global chemical weather forecast with modern online-coupled models for the U.S. Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS)
Year: 2020
Type: conference-abstract
Abstract: Significant progress has been made within the last couple of years towards developing online coupled systems aimed at providing more accurate descriptions of atmospheric chemistry processes to improve performance of global aerosol and air quality forecasts. Operating within the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) research-to-operation initiative to implement the fully-coupled Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS), cooperative development efforts have delivered two integrated online global prediction systems for aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols) and air quality (FV3GFS-AQM). These systems include recent advances in aerosol convective transport and wet deposition processes introduced into the SAS scheme of the National Center for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) latest Global Forecast System (GFS) based on the Finite-Volume cubed-sphere dynamical core (FV3). GEFS-Aerosols is slated to become the new control member of the NWS Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). The model features an online-coupled version of the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model with a biomass-burning, plume-rise model and recent advances from NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), along with a state-of-the-art FENGSHA dust scheme from NOAA Air Resource Laboratory (ARL). FV3GFS-AQM incorporates a coupled, single-column adaptation of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to improve NOAA’s current National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC). Both coupled systems’ design and development benefited from the use of the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) Layer, which provided a common model architecture for interoperable, coupled model components within the framework of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling System (NEMS). Results from each of the described coupled systems will be discussed.
Institutions: Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA Climate Prediction Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NOAA Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA National Weather Service, University of Maryland, College Park, NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, NOAA Office of Modeling and Development, Environmental Protection Agency
Language: English
Subfield: Atmospheric Science
Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
OpenAlex ID: W3094626323