Work

Social networks, confirmation bias and shock elections

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: This paper links the increasing prominence of social networks in politics to recent shock election outcomes. In our set-up, agents learning on a network suffer from confirmation bias – the tendency to ignore contrary evidence to one’s own belief. Our main result is that confirmation bias slows down learning in a wide class of networks. For any network, consensus fails to emerge when confirmation bias is above a threshold. We explore the implications for elections and media markets. Confirmation bias increases the likelihood of shock elections, and encourages media organizations already at the fringe to take on even more extreme views.

Source: European Journal of Political Economy

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2026.102907

Authors: Edoardo Gallo, Alastair Langtry

Institutions: University of Cambridge, University of Bristol

Language: English

Topic: Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence

Subfield: Statistical and Nonlinear Physics

Field: Physics and Astronomy

Domain: Physical Sciences

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,650

Funder: Economic and Social Research Council