Year: 2020
Type: article
Abstract: Near‐miss events, which occur when failure is avoided by chance, can lead to subsequent risky decisions due to base‐rate neglect. According to construal level theory, a lower level construal increases the neglect of base rates by giving more weight to case‐specific information. In four studies, I empirically test the hypothesis that low‐level construals moderate evaluations and decisions following near‐miss events by increasing the reliance on case information. In Study 1, I find that a higher construal correlates with negative assessments of a project manager responsible for a near‐miss incident. In Study 2, I prime participants to have a high‐ or low‐level construal and find that the manager evaluations in the low construal group are higher than evaluations of those in the high construal group. In Study 3, I examine whether construal levels impact decision making in personal contexts regarding natural disasters and provide evidence for the underlying mechanism of base‐rate neglect. In Study 4, I show that the construal levels affect decision making given that near‐miss information extends to variations in the temporal distance to near‐miss information. Thus, I find support that construal levels systematically influence evaluations and decision making following near‐miss events.
DOI: 10.1002/bdm.2216
Author: Samuel N. Kirshner
Institution: UNSW Sydney
Language: English
Subfield: General Decision Sciences
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W3101955835