Electoral Balancing, Divided Government, and Midterm Loss in German State Elections
Year: 2006
Type: preprint
Abstract: This paper takes a fresh look at the midterm loss in German elections and argues that government type is a crucial determinant of midterm loss. Using panel regressions on a newly compiled data set covering all state elections during the period 1949-2004, we find that systematic midterm losses occur only when both chambers of the federal legislature (Bundestag and Bundesrat) are controlled by one party or a party coalition. Prior research has failed to discover this important regularity. These findings lend strong support to electoral balancing models while calling into doubt more traditional explanations of midterm loss.
Source: SSRN Electronic Journal
Authors: Holger Kern, Jens Hainmueller
Institutions: Florida State University, Stanford University
Language: English
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W3124951763