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Estimation of COVID-19 under-ascertainment in Kano, Nigeria during the early phase of the epidemics

Year: 2021
Type: article
Abstract: This study aims to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases under- ascertained (η), and the basic reproduction number (R0) during the early stage of epidemic in Kano, Nigeria. We adopt a simple exponential growth model to capture the patterns of COVID-19 early epidemic curve in Kano. The R0 is estimated at 2.7 (95%CI: 2.5, 3.0). We find that the number of COVID-19 cases under-ascertained likely occurred during the fourth week of April 2020, and should be considered for future epidemiological investigations and mitigation plan.
DOI: 10.1016/j.aej.2021.03.003
Authors: Salihu S. Musa, Shi Zhao, Nafiu Hussaini, Zian Zhuang, Yushan Wu, Abdurrahman Abdulhamid, Maggie H. Wang, Daihai He
Institutions: Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Kano State University of Technology, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Bayero University Kano, Kano State Polytechnic
Language: English
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $860
OpenAlex ID: W3137284625
FWCI: 1.351
Cites: 47
Cited by: 17
Related to: 10