Year: 2006
Type: article
Abstract: Vaccination has proved a powerful defence against measles. We reappraise measles seroepidemiological data in Taiwan from 1974 to 2004 having robust age-stratified serological information on exposure and immunity to quantitatively characterize measles vaccination programmes. We dynamically model measles seroepidemiology to estimate age-dependent intensity of infection associated with the effects of different contact patterns on pre- and post-vaccination. The WAIFM (who acquires infection from whom) contact matrix is employed to describe the transmission between and within each age group. A deterministic SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovery) model is used to capture subpopulation dynamics. Our study shows that mass regional or nationwide vaccination programmes could greatly reduce the potential for a major measles epidemic and have strong direct effects on the potential impact of childhood vaccination. We parameterize a predictive model that should reduce the socio-economic costs of measles surveillance in Taiwan and thereby encourage its continuance, especially for preschool children.
Source: Epidemiology and Infection
Authors: S. C. CHEN, C. F. CHANG, L. J. JOU, C. M. LIAO
Institutions: National Taiwan University, National Ilan University
Language: English
Subfield: Applied Mathematics
Field: Mathematics
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: bronze
OpenAlex ID: W1997976901