Driven by Division?: An Exploration of Political Polarization and Voter Turnout in American Presidential Elections
Year: 2019
Type: dissertation
Abstract: This thesis investigates political polarization and voter turnout in American presidential elections.Scholars widely agree that political polarization-defined as the separation of partisans' ideological views-has increased since the 1960s on an elite level.Similarly, "affective polarization," or the tendency of partisan-identifiers to hold negative views of an opposing party and positive views of their own party, has intensified in recent years.Political scientists have spent considerable time examining and discussing these trends.This thesis contributes to that literature by examining how both perceived partisan polarization and affective polarization impact voter turnout.This thesis uses American National Election Studies (ANES) survey data to statistically evaluate the relationship between political polarization and voter turnout in the presidential elections of 2016, 2008, 2000, and 1992.This study also investigates what factors may mediate the relationship between polarization and turnout.Analyses uncover a consistent positive relationship between perceived partisan polarization and individual voting decisions; as an individual perceives greater partisan polarization, their likelihood of turning out to vote increases.Similarly, I find a positive association between affective polarization and voter turnout.Finally, the results are consistent with my expectations that perceived electoral stakes and increased campaign interest mediate the relationship between polarization and turnout.
Author: Emma Benninghoff
Language: English
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W3160990705