North Atlantic winter surface extratropical cyclone track variability on interannual-to-decadal time-scales.
Year: 2004
Type: dissertation
Abstract: The variability of cyclone activity at interannual and decadal-to-multidecadal time-scales is examined. First, interannual cyclone variability is classified into three major modes based on a VARIMAX Rotated Principal Component Analysis (VRPC) of CDF anomalies. Differences between the new CDF modes are emphasized in several respects (e.g., time-frequency decomposition of VRPC scores). Relationships of these unique modes to various atmospheric/oceanic circulation anomalies (in addition to NAO and ENSO) are then documented; the different physical mechanisms involved are elucidated. Further, decadal ocean-atmosphere interactions are explored via a new lead/lag CCA-based procedure. CDF also is used to re-examine the predictability of Moroccan precipitation anomalies by accounting for VRPC scores (besides NAO). Finally, new ensemble simulation of trends in LF NAO for 21st century climate changes using coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs is analyzed.
Author: Mostafa El Hamly
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W3168112996