Work

Triple contagion: a two-fears epidemic model

Year: 2021

Type: article

Abstract: We present a differential equations model in which contagious disease transmission is affected by contagious fear of the disease and contagious fear of the control, in this case vaccine. The three contagions are coupled. The two fears evolve and interact in ways that shape distancing behaviour, vaccine uptake, and their relaxation. These behavioural dynamics in turn can amplify or suppress disease transmission, which feeds back to affect behaviour. The model reveals several coupled contagion mechanisms for multiple epidemic waves. Methodologically, the paper advances infectious disease modelling by including human behavioural adaptation, drawing on the neuroscience of fear learning, extinction and transmission.

Source: Journal of The Royal Society Interface

DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2021.0186

Authors: Joshua M. Epstein, Erez Hatna, Jennifer Crodelle

Institutions: New York University, Middlebury College

Language: English

Topic: Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models

Subfield: Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

Field: Medicine

Domain: Health Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: hybrid

Funder: Center for the United States and the Cold War, New York University