Work

Estimation of the Total Number of SARS-CoV-2-infected Individuals and the Necessary Tests and Cost During the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan

Year: 2021

Type: article

Abstract: The number of reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Japan was small (ie, 26 tests per million, as compared to 196 tests per million in South Korea). 1 Given the characteristics of SARS-CoV-2, which involves pre-symptomatic transmission, 2,3 a shortage of testing makes it difficult to understand the precise situation of the pandemic. 4][7] However, no study has estimated the ideal testing capacity based on epidemiological data using SARS-CoV-2 serological study results.To that end, we aimed to calculate the total number of tests necessary to capture every individual infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the first wave of the pandemic in Japan.We defined a "case" as an individual whose RT-PCR test report for SARS-CoV-2 was positive.We used an open dataset provided by Toyo Keizai Online 8 to calculate the total number of cases and individuals tested from February 8 through May 25, 2020 (ie, the first wave of the pandemic).We also used data from Ethics approval and consent to participate:

Source: Journal of Epidemiology

DOI: 10.2188/jea.je20210197

Authors: Nobutoshi Nawa, Daiki Tebi, Jin Kuramochi, Takeo Fujiwara

Institution: Tokyo Medical and Dental University

Language: English

Topic: COVID-19 epidemiological studies

Subfield: Modeling and Simulation

Field: Mathematics

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $1,356