Work

An Epidemiological Model of Economic Crisis Spread across Sectors in the United States

Year: 2021

Type: article

Abstract: This paper develops a discrete‐time epidemiological model to characterize the spread of economic deterioration across sectors in the United States for the period 1952–2015. It is the first model to apply an epidemiological approach to consider such spread using macroeconomic Flow of Funds data. By extending the usual one‐period Markov model to a two‐period setting, we incorporate the possibility that an initial slow growth period may either continue further or improve such that further economic deterioration is averted. The estimated model can be used to classify more versus less contagious sectors and identify their channels of transmission.

Source: Journal of money credit and banking

DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12862

Authors: EVA F. JANSSENS, ROBIN L. LUMSDAINE, SEBASTIAAN H.L.C.G. VERMEULEN

Institutions: Tinbergen Institute, University of Amsterdam

Language: English

Topic: Economic Theory and Policy

Subfield: General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,000

Funders: Aarhus Universitet, Australian Government