Work

Union Instability and Fertility: A Microsimulation Model for Italy and Great Britain

Year: 2021

Type: article

Abstract: Family dynamics are changing in Europe, but only few studies investigate how cohort completed fertility is affected by partnership behaviours and how this has changed over time. We use microsimulation techniques to investigate the effect of the increasing prevalence of union dissolution on completed fertility levels in Italy and Great Britain, two countries with very different systems of value. We find that the net effect of union instability is to decrease fertility (by about 0.5 children for Italian and 0.2 to 0.4 children for British cohorts) but the magnitude of the difference depends on the timing of union formation and separation. As expected, re-partnering produces more children in new partnerships if the separation occurs earlier. Nonetheless, it is only if separation takes place after the second birth and if all women re-partner that additional childbearing would almost compensate for births lost due to union disruption.

DOI: 10.1553/0x003ccffe

Authors: Maria Winkler-Dworak, Eva Beaujouan, Paola Di Giulio, Martin Spielauer

Institutions: Austrian Institute of Economic Research, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna Institute of Demography

Language: German

Topic: Family Dynamics and Relationships

Subfield: Demography

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: gold

Funder: European Commission

Awards: G3207356259, G393177772, G5702163051, Changing families and sustainable societies: Policy contexts and diversity over the life course and across generations

OpenAlex ID: W3208329388