Stochastic social behavior coupled to COVID-19 dynamics leads to waves, plateaus, and an endemic state
Year: 2021
Type: article
Abstract: It is well recognized that population heterogeneity plays an important role in the spread of epidemics. While individual variations in social activity are often assumed to be persistent, that is, constant in time, here we discuss the consequences of dynamic heterogeneity. By integrating the stochastic dynamics of social activity into traditional epidemiological models, we demonstrate the emergence of a new long timescale governing the epidemic, in broad agreement with empirical data. Our stochastic social activity model captures multiple features of real-life epidemics such as COVID-19, including prolonged plateaus and multiple waves, which are transiently suppressed due to the dynamic nature of social activity. The existence of a long timescale due to the interplay between epidemic and social dynamics provides a unifying picture of how a fast-paced epidemic typically will transition to an endemic state.
Source: eLife
DOI: 10.7554/elife.68341
Language: English
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,500
Funders: U.S. Department of Energy, Princeton University, University of Illinois System, Royal Society, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Office of Science, National Science Foundation of Sri Lanka, Grainger College of Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Brookhaven National Laboratory
OpenAlex ID: W3211533786