The relaxation dynamics of an epidemic.
Year: 2021
Type: preprint
Abstract: Anticipating the overall evolution of an epidemic and estimating the impact of sanitary measures are central to appropriate health crisis management and societal decision-making. However, accurate early projections remain difficult to make. Building on a new analogy with chemical reactions, we show that an epidemic decelerates exponentially since the very first instants of the outbreak. The rise and fall of an epidemic wave directly follows from this exponential relaxation, allowing prediction of the peak time and amplitude of the incoming wave. Furthermore, changes in social behavior trigger epidemic subwaves affecting the relaxation dynamics of the epidemic. The entropy of mixing between noninfected and infected people that drives the relaxation process helps decipher the most likely evolution of an epidemic outbreak.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Author: Loïc Vanel
Institution: Lyon 1 Université
Language: English
Subfield: Applied Mathematics
Field: Mathematics
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W3216121389