Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Year: 2022
Type: article
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors. METHODS: We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis. FINDINGS: We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4-65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8-175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [-7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64-1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52-1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41-67]) and western Europe (74% [58-90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329-403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323-395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia. INTERPRETATION: Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures.
Source: The Lancet Public Health
Authors: Emma Nichols, Jaimie D Steinmetz, Stein Emil Vollset, Kai Fukutaki, Julian Chalek, Foad Abd-Allah, Amir Abdoli, Ahmed Abualhasan, Eman Abu-Gharbieh, Tayyaba Tayyaba Akram, Hanadi Al Hamad, Fares Alahdab, Fahad Mashhour Alanezi, Vahid Alipour, Sami Almustanyir, Hubert Amu, Iman Ansari, Jalal Arabloo, Tahira Ashraf, Thomas Astell-Burt, Getinet Ayano, Jose L Ayuso-Mateos, Atif Amin Baig, Anthony Barnett, Amadou Barrow, Bernhard T Baune, Yannick Béjot, Woldesellassie M Mequanint Bezabhe, Yihienew Mequanint Bezabih, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Sonu Bhaskar, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Ali Bijani, Atanu Biswas, Srinivasa Rao Bolla, Archith Boloor, Carol Brayne, Hermann Brenner, Katrin Burkart, Richard A Burns, Luis Alberto Cámera, Chao Cao, Felix Carvalho, Luis F S Castro-de-Araujo, Ferrán Catalá-López, Ester Cerin, Prachi P Chavan, Nicolas Cherbuin, Dinh-Toi Chu, Vera Marisa Costa, Rosa A S Couto, Omid Dadras, Xiaochen Dai, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Vanessa De la Cruz-Góngora, Deepak Dhamnetiya, Diana Dias da Silva, Daniel Diaz, Abdel Douiri, David Edvardsson, Michael Ekholuenetale, Iman El Sayed, Shaimaa I El-Jaafary, Khalil Eskandari, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Saman Esmaeilnejad, Jawad Fares, Andre Faro, Umar Farooque, Valery L Feigin, Xiaoqi Feng, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Eduarda Fernandes, Pietro Ferrara, Irina Filip, Howard Fillit, Florian Fischer, Shilpa Gaidhane, Lucia Galluzzo, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Nermin Ghith, Alessandro Gialluisi, Syed Amir Gilani, Ionela-Roxana Glavan, Elena V Gnedovskaya, Mahaveer Golechha, Rajeev Gupta, Veer Bala Gupta, Vivek Kumar Gupta, Mohammad Rifat Haider, Brian J Hall, Samer Hamidi, Asif Hanif, Graeme J Hankey, Shafiul Haque, Risky Kusuma Hartono, Ahmed I Hasaballah, M Tasdik Hasan, Amr Hassan, Simon I Hay, Khezar Hayat, Mohamed I Hegazy, Golnaz Heidari, Reza Heidari-Soureshjani, Claudiu Herteliu, Mowafa Househ, Rabia Hussain, Bing-Fang Hwang, Licia Iacoviello, Ivo Iavicoli, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Irena M Ilic, Milena D Ilic, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Hiroyasu Iso, Masao Iwagami, Roxana Jabbarinejad, Louis Jacob, Vardhmaan Jain, Sathish Kumar Jayapal, Ranil Jayawardena, Ravi Prakash Jha, Jost B Jonas, Nitin Joseph, Rizwan Kalani, Amit Kandel, Himal Kandel, André Karch, Ayele Semachew Kasa, Gizat M Kassie, Pedram Keshavarz, Moien AB Khan, Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib, Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer Khoja, Jagdish Khubchandani, Min Seo Kim, Yun Jin Kim, Adnan Kisa, Sezer Kisa, Mika Kivimäki, Walter J Koroshetz, Ai Koyanagi, G Anil Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Hassan Mehmood Lak, Matilde Leonardi, Bingyu Li, Stephen S Lim, Xuefeng Liu, Yuewei Liu, Giancarlo Logroscino, Stefan Lorkowski, Giancarlo Lucchetti, Ricardo Lutzky Saute, Francesca Giulia Magnani, Ahmad Azam Malik, João Massano, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Ritesh G Menezes, Atte Meretoja, Bahram Mohajer, Norlinah Mohamed Ibrahim, Yousef Mohammad, Arif Mohammed, Ali H Mokdad, Stefania Mondello, Mohammad Ali Ali Moni, Md Moniruzzaman, Tilahun Belete Mossie, Gabriele Nagel, Muhammad Naveed, Vinod C Nayak, Sandhya Neupane Kandel, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Bogdan Oancea, Nikita Otstavnov, Stanislav S Otstavnov, Mayowa O Owolabi, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan, Maja Pasovic, Urvish K Patel, Mona Pathak, Mario F P Peres, Arokiasamy Perianayagam, Carrie B Peterson, Michael R Phillips, Marina Pinheiro, Michael A Piradov, Constance Dimity Pond, Michele H Potashman, Faheem Hyder Pottoo, Sergio I Prada, Amir Radfar, Alberto Raggi, Fakher Rahim, Mosiur Rahman, Pradhum Ram, Priyanga Ranasinghe, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Nima Rezaei, Aziz Rezapour, Stephen R Robinson, Michele Romoli, Gholamreza Roshandel, Ramesh Sahathevan, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Brijesh Sathian, Davide Sattin, Monika Sawhney, Mete Saylan, Silvia Schiavolin, Allen Seylani, Feng Sha, Masood Ali Shaikh, KS Shaji, Mohammed Shannawaz, Jeevan K Shetty, Mika Shigematsu, Jae Il Shin, Rahman Shiri, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, João Pedro Silva, Renata Silva, Jasvinder A Singh, Valentin Yurievich Skryabin, Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina, Amanda E Smith, Sergey Soshnikov, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Dan J Stein, Jing Sun, Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos, Bhaskar Thakur, Binod Timalsina, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Bach Xuan Tran, Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye, Sahel Valadan Tahbaz, Pascual R Valdez, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Vasily Vlassov, Giang Thu Vu, Linh Gia Vu, Yuan-Pang Wang, Anders Wimo, Andrea Sylvia Winkler, Lalit Yadav, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Kazumasa Yamagishi, Lin Yang, Yuichiro Yano, Naohiro Yonemoto, Chuanhua Yu, Ismaeel Yunusa, Siddhesh Zadey, Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin, Anasthasia Zastrozhina, Zhi-Jiang Zhang, Christopher J L Murray, Theo Vos
Language: English
Subfield: Psychiatry and Mental health
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $5,500
Funders: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, World Health Organization, Biogen, Kaiser Permanente, Emory University, Northwestern University, Texas Tech University, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Washington University in St. Louis, Cleveland Clinic, Univerzita Karlova v Praze, Alberta Health Services, University of Georgia, Helsingin Yliopisto, Tulane University, University of Central Florida, Case Western Reserve University, Auckland University of Technology, New Zealand, New York University Shanghai, Bournemouth University, University of Ottawa, Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum, University of South Carolina, Jazan University, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, New Mexico State University, Wellcome Trust, King's College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Università degli Studi di Milano, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland, Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena, EU Joint Programme – Neurodegenerative Disease Research, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, South Eastern Sydney Local Health District, University of Central Punjab, Alzheimer's Society, Trường Đại học Nguyễn Tất Thành, Trường Đại học Duy Tân, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, National Institute for Health and Care Research, Royal College of Physicians, Imperial College London, King's College London, University College London, La Trobe University, Macquarie University, University of Tasmania, London South Bank University, South African Medical Research Council, National University of Singapore, Department of Biotechnology, Ministry of Science and Technology, India, Indian Council of Medical Research, Public Health Foundation of India, University of New South Wales, University of Technology Sydney, Deakin University, RMIT University, University of South Australia, Griffith University, Queensland University of Technology, University of Queensland, Public Health England, Alzheimer’s Research UK, Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, King Saud University, Sun Yat-sen University, Universidad ICESI, Dongguk University, Yonsei University, Islamic Azad University, Banaras Hindu University, University of Calcutta, Ministero della Salute, Fundación Valle del Lili, Universitat de València, Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Karolinska Institutet, King Abdulaziz University, Khalifa University of Science, Technology and Research, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Tehran University of Medical Sciences and Health Services, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Université de Bourgogne, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Umeå Universitet, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet, Universita degli Studi di Bari Aldo Moro, Universitetet i Oslo, Università degli Studi dell'Insubria, Universidade de São Paulo, Technische Universität München, Babol University of Medical Sciences, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Autoritatea Natională pentru Cercetare Stiintifică, Bahir Dar University, United Arab Emirates University, Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino Superior, University of Tsukuba, Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Salud Mental, Universidade do Porto, Wuhan University, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, National Research University Higher School of Economics, China Medical University, Universitatea din București, Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora, Fondazione I.R.C.C.S. Istituto Neurologico Carlo Besta, Golestan University of Medical Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Xiamen University, Universität Ulm, Shenzhen University, Université de Nantes, National Center of Neurology and Psychiatry, Novo Nordisk Fonden, University of Colombo, Alexandria University, Walailak University, Nazarbayev University, I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University, Applied Molecular Biosciences Unit, University of Jeddah, Universidade Federal de Sergipe, Rajshahi University, Universidad Autónoma de Sinaloa, Mahatma Gandhi University, Laboratório Associado para a Química Verde, Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, George Institute for Global Health, University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Directorate for Biological Sciences, Samsung, Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, University at Buffalo, College of Science and Engineering, University of Minnesota, Merck Sharp and Dohme, Manchester Biomedical Research Centre, Medical Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, Australian Research Council, National Health and Medical Research Council, Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust, National Institute for Health Research Applied Research Collaboration West, National Institute on Aging, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Fogarty International Center, Division of Human Resource Development
Awards: G1431714758, G1787587971, Kompetenzcluster Ernährungsforschung: nutriCARD 'Kompetenzcluster für Ernährung und kardiovaskuläre Gesundheit, Universität Jena - 2. Förderphase', G2463161078, G2827174473, G369899356, Taking the long view: Identification of plasma protein biomarkers for dementia risk, G4824937988, G5080539141, G5281204143, G593916079, G6289953199, G6703874277, G7892027854, G7978605080, Unidade de Ciências Biomoleculares Aplicadas, G949874453
OpenAlex ID: W4206055706