Predicting Solar Energetic Particles Using SDO/HMI Vector Magnetic Data Products and a Bidirectional LSTM Network
Year: 2022
Type: article
Abstract: Solar energetic particles (SEPs) are an essential source of space radiation, and are hazardous for humans in space, spacecraft, and technology in general. In this paper, we propose a deep-learning method, specifically a bidirectional long short-term memory (biLSTM) network, to predict if an active region (AR) would produce an SEP event given that (i) the AR will produce an M- or X-class flare and a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the flare, or (ii) the AR will produce an M- or X-class flare regardless of whether or not the flare is associated with a CME. The data samples used in this study are collected from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite's X-ray flare catalogs provided by the National Centers for Environmental Information. We select M- and X-class flares with identified ARs in the catalogs for the period between 2010 and 2021, and find the associations of flares, CMEs, and SEPs in the Space Weather Database of Notifications, Knowledge, Information during the same period. Each data sample contains physical parameters collected from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory. Experimental results based on different performance metrics demonstrate that the proposed biLSTM network is better than related machine-learning algorithms for the two SEP prediction tasks studied here. We also discuss extensions of our approach for probabilistic forecasting and calibration with empirical evaluation.
Language: English
Subfield: Astronomy and Astrophysics
Field: Physics and Astronomy
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $4,499
Awards: G1514998166, CHROMOSPHERIC FLARE RIBBONS ARE ONE OF THE MOST DIRECT OBSERVATIONAL LINKS TO THE MAGNETIC RECONNECTION REGION AND CAN PROVIDE UNIQUE INFORMATION ON THE 3D MAGNETIC GEOMETRY OF THE ENERGY RELEASE SITE AND CHANNELS. ONLY RECENTLY FLARES HAVING A CIRCULAR RIBBON HAVE STARTED TO BE REPORTED AND GAINED INCREASING ATTENTION THANKS TO HIGH-RESOLUTION OBSERVATIONS FROM SDO. IN INTERPRETING THIS KIND OF EVENTS THE FAN-SPINE MAGNETIC TOPOLOGY IS USUALLY INVOKED WHERE THE DOME-SHAPED FAN PORTRAYS THE CLOSED SEPARATRIX SURFACE AND THE INNER AND OUTER SPINE FIELD LINES LAY IN DIFFERENT CONNECTIVITY DOMAINS AND PASS THROUGH A CORONAL NULL POINT. INTRIGUINGLY IN SOME CIRCULAR-RIBBON FLARES AN ACTIVE FILAMENT/FLUX ROPE CAN BE EMBEDDED UNDER THE FAN DOME. SINCE MAGNETIC NULL POINTS ARE COMMON STRUCTURES IN THE CORONA RELATED TO BOTH ERUPTIVE AND CONFINED FLARES AS WELL AS CORONAL JETS STUDYING CIRCULAR-RIBBON FLARES AND THE RELATED MAGNETIC STRUCTURE/TOPOLOGY WILL ADVANCE OUR KNOWLEDGE OF SOLAR ERUPTIONS IN GENERAL. THE STUDIES SO FAR ARE NEVERTHELESS STILL VERY LIMITED IN THE SENSE THAT THE MAGNETIC STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION OF CIRCULAR-RIBBON FLARES ESPECIALLY RELATED TO THE EVENT TRIGGERING AND PROGRESSION IS NOT FULLY UNDERSTOOD. MOREOVER THE DETAILED INTERACTION PROCESS BETWEEN THE EMBEDDED FILAMENT AND THE FAN-SPINE FIELD HAS NOT YET BEEN ADDRESSED. FROM A PRELIMINARY EVENT SURVEY WE HAVE COMPILED A LIST OF OVER 20 CIRCULAR-RIBBON FLARES (C-CLASS AND UP) AND MORE SUCH EVENTS ARE EXPECTED AS SDO PROVIDES NEARLY CONTINUOUS COVERAGE. THIS MAKES IT AN OPPORTUNE MOMENT TO QUANTITATIVELY ADDRESS THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS BY DETAILED CASE BY CASE AS WELL AS COMPARATIVE STUDIES. WE PLAN THE SCIENTIFIC OBJECTIVES OF THIS PROPOSAL AS FOLLOWS. 1. USING HIGH-RESOLUTION OBSERVATIONS (EUV/UV FROM SDO/AIA AND IRIS AND OPTICAL FROM BBSO/GST) AIDED BY THE 3D CORONAL FIELD MODELING (NONLINEAR FORCE-FREE FIELD EXTRAPOLATION AND FLUX ROPE INSERTION BASED ON SDO/HMI VECTOR FIELD DATA AND DYNAMICAL MAGNETOFRICTIONAL AND MHD SIMULATIONS) WE WILL STUDY THE TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF THE MAGNETIC FIELD STRUCTURE AND PHOTOSPHERIC FLOW FIELD LEADING TO THE INITIATION OF CIRCULAR-RIBBON FLARES AND ALSO THE DYNAMICS OF CIRCULAR FLARE RIBBONS RELATED TO THE NULL-POINT RECONNECTION. 2. SPECIAL EMPHASIS WILL BE PLACED ON EVENTS IN WHICH AN ACTIVE FILAMENT IS EMBEDDED IN THE FAN-SPINE TOPOLOGY. DIFFERENT FROM REGULAR CIRCULAR-RIBBON FLARES THAT ARE USUALLY CONFINED THESE EVENTS CAN BE ERUPTIVE. USING BOTH MULTIWAVELENGTH OBSERVATIONS AND CORONAL MAGNETIC FIELD MODELING OF THE FAN-SPINE AND FILAMENT FIELDS WE WILL ELUCIDATE THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE ACTIVE FILAMENT AND FANSPINE MAGNETIC FIELDS AND DISENTANGLE THE POSSIBLE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE OBSERVED FILAMENT ERUPTION (STANDARD PICTURE) AND CIRCULAR-RIBBON FLARE (OCCURRING IN THE PROCESS OF NULL-POINT RECONNECTION). THE PROPOSED INVESTIGATION WILL EXTENSIVELY USE DATA FROM CURRENT NASA SPACECRAFT. COMPLEMENTARY HIGH-RESOLUTION OBSERVATIONS FROM BIG BEAR SOLAR OBSERVATORY WILL ENHANCE THE STUDY. THIS TIMELY RESEARCH INSPIRED BY OUR NEW RESULTS ON CIRCULAR-RIBBON FLARES CAN HELP TO ADDRESS THE FUNDAMENTAL PHYSICS CONCERNING THE TRIGGERING AND PROGRESSION OF ALL SOLAR FLARES AND ERUPTIONS. THIS IS CLOSELY RELEVANT TO ONE OF THE HELIOPHYSICS DECADAL SURVEY GOALS: DETERMINE THE ORIGINS OF THE SUN'S ACTIVITY AND CHARACTERIZE A FUNDAMENTAL PROCESS IN ASTROPHYSICS I.E. RECONNECTION, G2465937615, G8224299238, Collaborative Research: Dynamic and Non-Force-Free Properties of Solar Active Regions and Subsequent Initiation of Flares, G8719881442, EarthCube Data Capabilities: Machine Learning Enhanced Cyberinfrastructure for Understanding and Predicting the Onset of Solar Eruptions
OpenAlex ID: W4221159020