Work

A Novel Strategy for Predicting 72-h Mortality After Admission in Patients With Polytrauma: A Study on the Development and Validation of a Web-Based Calculator

Year: 2022

Type: article

Abstract: Background: Early and accessible screening of patients with polytrauma at a high risk of hospital death is essential. The purpose of this research was to seek an accurate and convenient solution to predict deaths occurring within 72 h after admission of these patients. Methods: = 614) based on a proportion of 8:2. The restricted cubic spline, univariate, backward stepwise, and multivariate logistic regression methods were employed to determine the suitable predictors. Calibration and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were applied to assess the calibration and discrimination of the obtained model. The decision curve analysis was then chosen as the measure to examine the clinical usage. Results: Age, the Glasgow Coma Scale score, the Injury Severity Score, base excess, and the initial lactate level were inferred as independent prognostic factors related to mortality. These factors were then integrated and applied to construct a model. The performance of calibration plots, ROC curves, and decision curve analysis indicated that the model had satisfactory predictive power for 72-h mortality after admission of patients with polytrauma. Moreover, we developed a nomogram for visualization and a web-based calculator for convenient application (https://songandwen.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/). Conclusions: A convenient web-based calculator was constructed to robustly estimate the risk of death in patients with polytrauma within 72 h after admission, which may aid in further rationalization of clinical decision-making and accurate individual treatment.

Source: Frontiers in Medicine

DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2022.799811

Authors: Song Chen, Meiyun Liu, Di Feng, Xin Lv, Juan Wei

Institutions: Tongji University, Shanghai East Hospital, Shanghai Pulmonary Hospital

Language: English

Topic: Trauma and Emergency Care Studies

Subfield: Emergency Medicine

Field: Medicine

Domain: Health Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,950