Mp09-14 External Validation of a Model Predicting Survival of Men With Recurrent Prostate Cancer After Radical Prostatectomy
Year: 2016
Type: article
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: You have accessJournal of UrologyProstate Cancer: Epidemiology & Natural History II1 Apr 2016MP09-14 EXTERNAL VALIDATION OF A MODEL PREDICTING SURVIVAL OF MEN WITH RECURRENT PROSTATE CANCER AFTER RADICAL PROSTATECTOMY Paolo Dell'Oglio, Nazareno Suardi, Stephen A. Boorjian, Nicola Fossati, Giorgio Gandaglia, Zhe Tian, Marco Moschini, Umberto Capitanio, Pierre Karakiewicz, Francesco Montorsi, Jeffrey R. Karnes, and Alberto Briganti Paolo Dell'OglioPaolo Dell'Oglio More articles by this author , Nazareno SuardiNazareno Suardi More articles by this author , Stephen A. BoorjianStephen A. Boorjian More articles by this author , Nicola FossatiNicola Fossati More articles by this author , Giorgio GandagliaGiorgio Gandaglia More articles by this author , Zhe TianZhe Tian More articles by this author , Marco MoschiniMarco Moschini More articles by this author , Umberto CapitanioUmberto Capitanio More articles by this author , Pierre KarakiewiczPierre Karakiewicz More articles by this author , Francesco MontorsiFrancesco Montorsi More articles by this author , Jeffrey R. KarnesJeffrey R. Karnes More articles by this author , and Alberto BrigantiAlberto Briganti More articles by this author View All Author Informationhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.juro.2016.02.2301AboutPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints ShareFacebookTwitterLinked InEmail INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to develop and externally validate a novel model aimed at predicting cancer-specific mortality (CSM) after biochemical recurrence (BCR) among prostate cancer (PCa) patients treated with radical prostatectomy (RP) with or without adjuvant external beam radiotherapy (aRT) and/or hormonal therapy (aHT). METHODS The development cohort included 689 consecutive PCa patients treated with RP between 1987 and 2011 at a single tertiary referral center. All men had a subsequent BCR, defined as 2 subsequent PSA values >0.2 ng/ml and rising. Multivariable competing-risks regression analyses tested the predictors of CSM after BCR for purpose of 5-year CSM nomogram development. Validation (2,000 bootstrap resamples) was internally tested. External validation was performed into a population of 6,734 PCa patients with BCR after treatment with RP treated at another tertiary referral center from 1987 to 2011. The predictive accuracy (PA) was quantified using the receiver operating characteristic-derived area under the curve and the calibration plot method. RESULTS The 5-year CSM-free survival rate was 83.6% (CI: 79.6-87.2). At multivariable analyses, pathologic stage T3b or more (HR: 7.42; p=0.008), pathologic Gleason score 8-10 (HR: 2.19; p=0.003), lymph node invasion (HR: 3.57; p=0.001), time to BCR (HR: 0.99; p=0.03) and age at BCR (HR: 1.04; p=0.04), were each significantly associated with the risk of CSM after BCR. The bootstrap-corrected PA was 87.4% (bootstrap 95% CI: 82.0-91.7%). External validation of our nomogram showed a good PA of 83.2%. Figure 1 shows the competing-risk nomogram CONCLUSIONS We developed and externally validated the first nomogram for individual prediction of 5-year PCa-specific mortality after BCR, applicable to all contemporary patients who recur after RP, inclusive of those treated with adjuvant therapies. This accurate and generalizable tool could be useful for patient counseling, risk stratification, and in designing future randomized trials to determine the decision making process in the BCR patient population © 2016FiguresReferencesRelatedDetails Volume 195Issue 4SApril 2016Page: e99 Advertisement Copyright & Permissions© 2016MetricsAuthor Information Paolo Dell'Oglio More articles by this author Nazareno Suardi More articles by this author Stephen A. Boorjian More articles by this author Nicola Fossati More articles by this author Giorgio Gandaglia More articles by this author Zhe Tian More articles by this author Marco Moschini More articles by this author Umberto Capitanio More articles by this author Pierre Karakiewicz More articles by this author Francesco Montorsi More articles by this author Jeffrey R. Karnes More articles by this author Alberto Briganti More articles by this author Expand All Advertisement Advertisement PDF downloadLoading ...
Source: The Journal of Urology
Language: English
Subfield: Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: bronze
OpenAlex ID: W4232576437