Year: 2020
Type: article
Abstract: International oil prices affect the development of many areas of the world economy, where most predictions of macroeconomic variables depend on the changes in oil prices.The high volatility of oil prices is a cause of prediction complexity, especially in crisis or during the current coronavirus pandemic.In this paper, a special and promising type of artificial neural network (Long Short-Term Memory) is used for predicting oil prices.The paper's objective is to predict the development of B daily values to 30 June 2021.For this purpose, available data for the period from the end of June 1988 to the end of November 2020 was used.To achieve the objective of the paper, two research questions were formulated: whether the created specific neural network is a suitable tool to smooth the time series of Brent oil prices, i.e., a suitable tool to predict the future development of the price of this commodity, and what development of oil price can be expected with regard to the current situation in global markets.It was confirmed that each of the networks retained could smooth the time series successfully, and it can make a reasonable prediction of the future Brent oil price development.This paper's primary finding is that the created neural network with integrated LSTM can be used for predicting Brent oil prices.As for the further development of oil price, the oil market will also respond to the positive development of the economy and the growth of the world economy's overall product, where both the quantity of extracted oil in the market and its price will grow.
Source: Acta Montanistica Slovaca
Language: English
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W4245208017