Year: 2022
Type: article
Abstract: With the improvement of treatment and prevention methods, many countries have the pandemic under control. Different from the globally large-scale outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020, now the outbreak in these countries shows new characteristics, which calls for an effective epidemic model to describe the transmission dynamics. Meeting this need, first, we extensively investigate the small-scale outbreaks in different provinces of China and use classic compartmental models, which have been widely used in predictions, to forecast the outbreaks. Additionally, we further propose a new version of cellular automata with a time matrix, to simulate outbreaks. Finally, the experimental results show that the proposed cellular automata could effectively simulate the small-scale outbreak of COVID-19, which provides insights into the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in China and help countries with small-scale outbreaks to determine and implement effective intervention measures. The countries with relatively small populations will also get useful information about the epidemic from our research.
Source: Frontiers in Public Health
Authors: Ze-Yang Wu, Hong-Bo Zhang, Hong-Fei Zhao
Institutions: Huaqiao University, National University of Singapore
Language: English
Subfield: Modeling and Simulation
Field: Mathematics
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,950
OpenAlex ID: W4283751768