Year: 2022
Type: preprint
Abstract: We propose a statistical framework for quantifying the importance of single events that do not provide intermediate rewards but offer implicit incentives through the reward structure at the end of a multi-event contest. Applying the framework to primary elections in the US, where earlier elections have greater importance and influence, we show that schedule variations can mitigate the problem of front-loading elections. When applied to European football, we demonstrate the utility and meaningfulness of quantified event importance in relation to the in-match performance of contestants, to improve outcome prediction and to provide an early indication of public interest.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Authors: Goller, Daniel, Heiniger, Sandro
Institution: University of Bern
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W4284883881