Year: 2018
Type: article
Abstract: An event study approach is adopted to investigate the drivers of the stock market around recessions. First, stock prices and dividends drop contemporaneously when accounting for different timing conventions. Accordingly, stock prices do not anticipate recessions due to an economic mechanism (cash flow news). Second, the variance of price changes increases at least as much as the variance of dividend growth during recessions. This result suggests that changes in the price of risk (discount rate news) play an essential role. Implications and opportunities for standard asset pricing theories and recently proposed alternatives are also discussed.
Source: Journal of Monetary Economics
Author: Tim A. Kroencke
Institution: University of Neuchâtel
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $4,660
OpenAlex ID: W4284885373