A new look at the anthropogenic global warming consensus: an econometric forecast based on the Arima Model of paleoclimate series.
Year: 2022
Type: preprint
Abstract: This paper aims to project a climate change scenario using a stochastic paleotemperature time series model and compare it with the prevailing consensus. The ARIMA - Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Process model was used for this purpose. The results show that the parameter estimates of the model were below what is established by the anthropogenic current and governmental organs, such as the IPCC (UN), considering a 100-year scenario, which suggests a period of temperature reduction and a probable cooling. Thus, we hope with this study to contribute to the discussion by adding a statistical element of paleoclimate in counterpoint to the current scientific consensus and place the debate in a long-term historical dimension, in line with other existing research on the topic.
Source: Research Square
Institution: Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W4285390723