Work

Mathematical analysis of a delayed SEIRDS epidemics models: deterministic and stochastic approach

Year: 2026

Type: article

Abstract: The primary goal of this research is to investigate the impact of delay on the dynamics of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Death and Susceptible (SEIRDS) model, to which we add a stochastic term to account for uncertainty in COVID-19 parameter estimations. We run two models, one deterministic and one stochastic, and show that their solutions exist and are unique. We also numerically investigate the impact of immunity loss on the emerging time of a new wave, as well as the necessary condition for the extinction and persistence of the disease.

Source: Stochastics

DOI: 10.1080/17442508.2026.2662251

Authors: Mohamed Ben Alaya, Walid Ben Aribi, Slimane Ben Miled

Institutions: Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire de Mathématiques Raphaël Salem, Université de Rouen Normandie, Tunis El Manar University

Language: English

Topic: Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models

Subfield: Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

Field: Medicine

Domain: Health Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: green

Funders: European Commission, Ministère de l'Europe et des Affaires Étrangères