Work

Showcasing MESMER‐X: Spatially Resolved Emulation of Annual Maximum Temperatures of Earth System Models

Year: 2022

Type: article

Abstract: Emulators of Earth System Models (ESMs) are complementary to ESMs by providing climate information at lower computational costs. Thus far, the emulation of spatially resolved climate extremes has only received limited attention, even though extreme events are one of the most impactful aspects of climate change. Here, we propose a method for the emulation of local annual maximum temperatures, with a focus on reproducing essential statistical properties such as correlations in space and time. We test different emulator configurations and find that driving the emulations with global mean surface temperature offers an optimal compromise between model complexity and performance. We show that the emulations can mimic the temporal evolution and spatial patterns of the underlying climate model simulations and are able to reproduce their natural variability. The general design and the good performance for annual maximum temperatures suggest that the proposed methodology can be applied to other climate extremes.

Source: Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: 10.1029/2022gl099012

Authors: Yann Quilcaille, Lukas Gudmundsson, Lea Beusch, Mathias Hauser, Sonia I. Seneviratne

Institutions: ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss

Language: English

Topic: Climate variability and models

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $2,700