The effect of variation of individual infectiousness on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in households
Year: 2023
Type: article
Study design: Systematic Review
Abstract: Quantifying variation of individual infectiousness is critical to inform disease control. Previous studies reported substantial heterogeneity in transmission of many infectious diseases including SARS-CoV-2. However, those results are difficult to interpret since the number of contacts is rarely considered in such approaches. Here, we analyze data from 17 SARS-CoV-2 household transmission studies conducted in periods dominated by ancestral strains, in which the number of contacts was known. By fitting individual-based household transmission models to these data, accounting for number of contacts and baseline transmission probabilities, the pooled estimate suggests that the 20% most infectious cases have 3.1-fold (95% confidence interval: 2.2- to 4.2-fold) higher infectiousness than average cases, which is consistent with the observed heterogeneity in viral shedding. Household data can inform the estimation of transmission heterogeneity, which is important for epidemic management.
Source: eLife
DOI: 10.7554/elife.82611
Authors: Tim K. Tsang, Xiaotong Huang, Can Wang, Sijie Chen, Bingyi Yang, Simon Cauchemez, Benjamin J. Cowling
Language: English
Subfield: Modeling and Simulation
Field: Mathematics
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,500
Funders: European Commission, Agence Nationale de la Recherche, AXA Research Fund, Research Grants Council, University Grants Committee, Innovation and Technology Commission, University of Hong Kong, Food and Health Bureau, Innovation and Technology Commission - Hong Kong, Health and Medical Research Fund
Awards: G1307562813, G1979782309, Versatile Emerging infectious disease Observatory, G282427092, G3039334494, G3169498485, G3529242499, G434337789, G4494678346, Rapid European SARS-CoV-2 Emergency research Response, Institut Convergences pour l’étude de l’Emergence des Pathologies au Travers des Individus et des populatiONs, G577950894, G7240651115, Nowcasting COVID-19 transmission dynamics, severity, and the effectiveness of control measures, G7916265299, G8670608220
OpenAlex ID: W4321617103