Methodology to estimate natural- and vaccine-induced antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a large geographic region
Year: 2022
Type: article
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: Accurate estimates of natural and/or vaccine-induced antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 are difficult to obtain. Although model-based estimates of seroprevalence have been proposed, they require inputting unknown parameters including viral reproduction number, longevity of immune response, and other dynamic factors. In contrast to a model-based approach, the current study presents a data-driven detailed statistical procedure for estimating total seroprevalence (defined as antibodies from natural infection or from full vaccination) in a region using prospectively collected serological data and state-level vaccination data. Specifically, we conducted a longitudinal statewide serological survey with 88,605 participants 5 years or older with 3 prospective blood draws beginning September 30, 2020. Along with state vaccination data, as of October 31, 2021, the estimated percentage of those 5 years or older with naturally occurring antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Texas is 35.0% (95% CI = (33.1%, 36.9%)). This is 3× higher than, state-confirmed COVID-19 cases (11.83%) for all ages. The percentage with naturally occurring or vaccine-induced antibodies (total seroprevalence) is 77.42%. This methodology is integral to pandemic preparedness as accurate estimates of seroprevalence can inform policy-making decisions relevant to SARS-CoV-2.
Source: PLoS ONE
Authors: Stacia M. DeSantis, Luis G. León-Novelo, Michael D. Swartz, Ashraf S. Yaseen, Melissa A. Valerio-Shewmaker, Yashar Talebi, Frances A. Brito, Jessica A. Ross, Harold W. Kohl, Sarah E. Messiah, Steve H. Kelder, Leqing Wu, Shiming Zhang, Kimberly A. Aguillard, Michael O. Gonzalez, Onyinye S. Omega-Njemnob, David Lakey, Jennifer A. Shuford, Stephen Pont, Eric Boerwinkle
Institutions: The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, The University of Texas at Austin, University of Texas Health Science Center at Dallas, The University of Texas System, The University of Texas at Tyler, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Tyler, Texas Department of State Health Services
Language: English
Subfield: Infectious Diseases
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $1,805
Awards: G1168085827, G2601519854
OpenAlex ID: W4295047638