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Physics-guided mixture density networks for uncertainty quantification

Year: 2022
Type: article
DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2022.108823
Authors: Jie Chen, Yang Yu, Yongming Liu
Language: English
Open Access status: bronze
Award: THE NEXT GENERATION NEXTGEN NATIONAL AIRSPACE SYSTEM NAS WILL CHANGE FROM RADAR BASED TECHNOLOGY TO ADS B ADS CSURVEILLANCE SYSTEMS BASED OPERATIONS. A MULTITUDE OF NEW AND EXISTING AVIATION DATA SOURCES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME AVAILABLE SUCH AS FROM VOICE AND DATA COMMUNICATIONS WEATHER FORECAST AND AIRCRAFT HEALTH DATA. HOWEVER SEVERAL CRITICAL CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THE SYSTEMATIC INTEGRATION AND INTERPRETATION OF THE ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF INFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH NAS. THE MYRIAD OF INFORMATION OFFERED BY VARIOUS DATA SOURCE REQUIRES APPROPRIATE REPRESENTATION AND PROPER FUSION METHODOLOGIES. FURTHERMORE A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INFORMATION ARISING FROM VARIOUS SOURCES SUCH AS AERONAUTICAL INSTRUMENTATION ENVIRONMENT INTRINSIC VARIABILITIES AND HUMAN FACTORS. COMPLEX SYSTEM SAFETY MODELING OF MULTIPLE FAILURE MODES LOSS OF SEPARATION MECHANICAL AND ELECTRICAL SUB SYSTEM FAILURE MISCOMMUNICATIONS HUMAN AUTOMATION ERRORS AND WEATHER RELATED HAZARDS WITH LARGELY UNKNOWN UNCERTAINTY IS EXTREMELY VALUABLE FOR THE SAFE TRANSITION OF THE PRESENT NAS TO NEXTGEN CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS. IN ADDITION INCREASED DEMAND REQUIREMENTS OF THE NEXTGEN NAS MAY LEAD TO HIGHER RISK LEVELS DUE TO THE REDUCTION OF SAFETY MARGINS AND MAY REQUIRE REAL TIME RESPONSE FOR RISK MITIGATION. THEREFORE THERE IS AN URGENT NEED TO DEVELOP SYSTEM WIDE PROGNOSTICS FRAMEWORK WITH RIGOROUS VERIFICATION AND VALIDATION METHODOLOGIES FOR THE PROACTIVE HEALTH MANAGEMENT OF THE EVOLVING NEXTGEN NAS.THE OVERALL OBJECTIVES OF THE PROPOSED STUDY ARE TO DEVELOP AN INTEGRATED REAL TIME SYSTEM WIDE INFORMATION FUSION METHODOLOGY FOR PROGNOSTICS AND SAFETY ASSURANCE OF THE NATIONAL ATS. VARIOUS SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTIES FROM OPERATIONS SENSORS AND MEASUREMENTS ENVIRONMENTS HUMAN MACHINE INTERACTIONS AND THEIR COUPLING EFFECTS WILL BE SYSTEMATICALLY INVESTIGATED FOR THE ACCURATE FAILURE AND RISK ASSESSMENT OF THE EXTREMELY LARGE SCALE COMPLEX ATS. PROACTIVE PROGNOSTICS BASED RISK MITIGATION PLANNING FOR THE EMERGENT THREATS TO THE NEXT GENERATION ATS WILL BE ADDRESSED. A COMMUNITY BASED COLLABORATIVE SIMULATION PLATFORM WILL BE DEVELOPED AND DEPLOYED FOR CONTINUED SUSTAINABLE PROGNOSTICS TECHNOLOGY EVOLUTION FOR THE ATS SAFETY RESEARCH.THE PROPOSED RESEARCH IS CENTERED ON A GENERALIZED BAYESIAN ENTROPY NETWORK MODELING LARGE SCALE MULTI SOURCE INFORMATION ARISING FROM KEY BUILDING BLOCKS OF THE NETWORK. EACH COMPONENT WILL ADDRESS SEVERAL KEY CHALLENGES AND DEVELOP NOVEL TECHNIQUES TO ADDRESS THEM. SPECIFICALLY THE PROPOSED MAJOR TASKS TO ACHIEVE THE PROPOSED OBJECTIVES ARE: 1. SYSTEM WIDE AIR TRAFFIC MODELING AND FAILURE SIMULATION 2. MULTI-MODALITY SAFETY MONITORING DETECTION AND DATA ANALYSIS 3. HUMAN SYSTEMS INTEGRATION 4. UNCERTAINTY MANAGEMENT AND RISK ASSESSMENT 5. INFORMATION FUSION AND PROGNOSTICS 6. VERIFICATION VALIDATION AND SAFETY ASSURANCE; 7. INTEGRATED EDUCATION RESEARCH AND DEMONSTRATION.THE PROPOSED RESEARCH DIRECTLY SUPPORTS THE CURRENT SOLICITATION AND ADDRESSES NASA ARMD STRATEGIC IMPLEMENTATION PLAN TOPIC 5: REAL-TIME SYSTEM WIDE SAFETY ASSURANCE AND THE OUTCOMES: OUTCOME FOR 2015 2025: INTRODUCTION OF ADVANCED SAFETY ASSURANCE TOOLS AND OUTCOME FOR 2025 2035: AN INTEGRATED SAFETY ASSURANCE SYSTEM ENABLING CONTINUOUS SYSTEM WIDE SAFETY MONITORING. IF SUCCESSFUL THE PROPOSED RESEARCH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ADVANCE THE EXISTING KNOWLEDGE BASE FOR THE SAFETY OF THE FUTURE NATIONAL ATS OPERATIONS. SYSTEM RESILIENCY AND SAFETY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCED THROUGH THE ACCURATE PROGNOSTICS AND RIGOROUS VERIFICATION AND VALIDATION OF THE PROPOSED METHODOLOGY. THE PROPOSED STUDY WILL ALSO GENERATE MANY FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH OUTCOMES THAT WILL BE BENEFICIAL TO NASA ARMD PROGRAMS AND THE FAA NEXTGEN PROGRAM.
OpenAlex ID: W4295809799
FWCI: 3.474
Cites: 60
Cited by: 41
Related to: 10