FOMC Forecasts: Is All the Information in the Central Tendency?
Year: 2003
Type: dataset
Abstract: Federal Reserve policymakers began reporting their economic forecasts to Congress in 1979. These forecasts are important because they indicate what the Federal Open Market Committee members think will be the likely consequence of their policies. The Fed reports both the range (high and low) of the individual policymakers' forecasts and a truncated central tendency. The central tendency range omits outliers from both the top and the bottom of the full range. The author of this article finds, generally, that the forecasts derived from the full range are at least as good as those derived from the central tendency and, in a few cases, significantly better.
Source: ICPSR Data Holdings
DOI: 10.3886/icpsr01287
Author: William T. Gavin
Institution: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Language: English
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W4301439127