Work

Predictors of Evacuation Rates during Hurricane Laura: Weather Forecasts, Twitter, and COVID-19

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Year: 2022

Type: article

Source: Weather Climate and Society

DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0006.1

Authors: Anna E. Brower, Bianca Corpuz, Balaji Ramesh, Benjamin Zaitchik, Julia M. Gohlke, Samarth Swarup

Institutions: University of Virginia, Johns Hopkins University, Virginia Tech

Language: English

Topic: Disaster Management and Resilience

Subfield: Sociology and Political Science

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Sustainable cities and communities

Open Access status: closed

Funder: National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Award: THE PREMISE OF THE PROPOSED PROJECT IS THAT HEALTH HAZARD MITIGATION PLANNING AND PUBLIC HEALTH DISASTER RESPONSE CAN BE IMPROVED BY INCLUDING ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURE CHARACTERIZATION THROUGH THE APPLICATION OF EARTH OBSERVATIONS (EO) AND SYNTHETIC POPULATION MODELING. CURRENT HEALTH HAZARD MITIGATION PLANNING AT THE FEDERAL AND STATE LEVEL INCORPORATES VULNERABILITY MAPPING SUCH AS THE CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTIONS SOCIAL VULNERABILITY INDEX (SVI) THAT RELIES ON STATIC SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC DATA TO IDENTIFY POPULATIONS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE ADVERSE HEALTH OUTCOMES DURING AND FOLLOWING A DISASTER. THE PROPOSED WORK WILL ENHANCE THESE METRICS OF SOCIAL VULNERABILITY BY DEVELOPING A METHODOLOGY FOR DYNAMIC EXPOSURE ESTIMATES USING EO COMBINED WITH SIMULATIONS OF PEOPLE'S MOVEMENTS THROUGH SPACE AND TIME. WE FOCUS ON A CASE STUDY APPLICATION THAT EVALUATES EXPOSURE TO TEMPERATURE FLOOD WATER AND POWER OUTAGES DURING AND FOLLOWING HURRICANE HARVEY AND COMPARISON TO HEALTH DATA COLLECTED FROM SYNDROMIC SURVEILLANCE SYSTEMS AT THE HOUSTON HEALTH DEPARTMENT. METHODS DEVELOPED WILL BE APPLICABLE TO ADDITIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURES (E.G. AIR POLLUTANTS) AND OTHER TYPES OF DISASTERS (E.G. TORNADOES WILDFIRES OIL SPILLS). ULTIMATELY THE GOAL OF THIS RESEARCH IS TO IMPROVE HEALTH HAZARD MITIGATION PLANNING AND RESPONSE TIMES IN NEIGHBORHOODS WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF ADVERSE HEALTH OUTCOMES DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURES COMPOUNDED BY SOCIAL VULNERABILITY DURING AND AFTER DISASTERS. THE OBJECTIVES OF THE PROPOSAL INCLUDE: 1. COMBINE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FLOOD WATER AND NIGHTTIME LIGHTS DATA DERIVED FROM MODIS VIIRS AND IMERG WITH GROUND-LEVEL EXPOSURE ESTIMATES AT DAILY TIME RESOLUTION AND CENSUS TRACT SPATIAL RESOLUTION. 2. INTEGRATE TIME-RESOLVED AMBIENT EXPOSURE ESTIMATES FROM OBJ 1 WITH HUMAN MOVEMENT PATTERNS THROUGH SIMULATION OF A SYNTHETIC POPULATION THAT TAKES INTO ACCOUNT BUILT ENVIRONMENT COMPONENTS (TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE) AND BEHAVIORS PRE AND DURING A DISASTER. 3. MATCH DAILY SYNDROMIC SURVEILLANCE DATA RECEIVED BY THE HOUSTON HEALTH DEPARTMENT PRE- DURING AND POST HURRICANE HARVEY TO CENSUS TRACT EXPOSURE METRICS DEVELOPED IN OBJ. 1 AND 2 TO EVALUATE WHETHER THE INCORPORATION OF EO AND AGENT-BASED MODELING IMPROVES THE PREDICTION OF THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF ADVERSE HEALTH OUTCOMES DURING AND FOLLOWING HURRICANE HARVEY COMPARING TO PREDICTIONS USING SVI ALONE. TO ACCOMPLISH THESE OBJECTIVES METHODS USED WILL INCLUDE EVALUATION OF EO DATA PRODUCTS AND INTEGRATION WITH AN AGENT-BASED MODEL TO SIMULATE EXPOSURE ACROSS SPACE AND TIME. WE WILL DEVELOP POWER OUTAGE TEMPERATURE AND FLOOD WATER ESTIMATES AT HIGH SPATIAL (1 KM) AND TEMPORAL (DAILY) RESOLUTION USING THREE NASA PRODUCTS: MODIS VIIRS AND IMERG. THIS COMPILED DATA WILL BE INTEGRATED WITH A SYNTHETIC POPULATION AND USED TO SIMULATE EXPOSURE DISTRIBUTIONS AT THE CENSUS BLOCK LEVEL USING DAILY ACTIVITY PATTERNS DERIVED FROM NATIONAL LEVEL ACTIVITY PATTERN DATA AND HUMAN BEHAVIOR MODELS. THE FINAL PRODUCT WILL ASSIGN COMMUNITY-LEVEL EXPOSURE TO POWER OUTAGE TEMPERATURE AND FLOOD-RELATED RISKS AT THE CENSUS TRACT LEVEL. THE PRODUCT WILL THEN BE COMPARED TO SYNDROMIC SURVEILLANCE DATA TO EVALUATE THE UTILITY OF THE ENHANCEMENT IN PREDICTING AREAS WITH THE MOST EMERGENCY DEPARTMENT VISITS DURING AND FOLLOWING HURRICANE HARVEY (ALL CAUSE HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS CO POISONING AND FLOOD-RELATED INJURY AND ILLNESS). THE ENHANCED PRODUCTS WILL BE TRANSITIONED TO CDC GRASP WEB-BASED TOOLS MADE AVAILABLE TO STATE AND LOCAL HEALTH DEPARTMENTS AND OTHER PUBLIC HEALTH PARTNERS IN DISASTER PLANNING AND RESPONSE FIELDS. FINALLY FEASIBILITY AND VALUE OF INTEGRATION INTO SYNDROMIC SURVEILLANCE PLATFORMS TO SUPPORT REAL-TIME SITUATIONAL AWARENESS FUNCTIONS AT CDC AND IN LOCAL AND STATE HEALTH DEPARTMENTS DURING DISASTER RESPONSE WILL BE ASSESSED.

OpenAlex ID: W4313407339

FWCI: 1.417

Cites: 45

Cited by: 6

Related to: 10