Work

A bi‐level ensemble learning approach to complex time series forecasting: Taking exchange rates as an example

Year: 2023

Type: article

Abstract: Forecasting complex time series faces a huge challenge due to its high volatility. To improve the accuracy and robustness of prediction, this paper proposes a bi‐level ensemble learning approach by combining decomposition‐ensemble forecasting and resample strategies. The bi‐level ensemble approach consists of four steps: data decomposition via singular spectrum analysis (SSA), resampling by employing a bagging algorithm, individual forecasting utilizing extreme learning machine (ELM), and introducing sorting‐pruning and simple addition ensemble strategies for integrating the inner and outer results, respectively. To verify the effectiveness of the established forecasting approach, three exchange rate time series are selected as samples. The results reveal that the proposed model is significantly better than the other benchmarks at different lead times, which indicates that it can be regarded as an effective and promising tool for complex time series forecasting.

Source: Journal of Forecasting

DOI: 10.1002/for.2971

Authors: Jun Hao, Qian Qian Feng, Jianping Li, Xiaolei Sun

Institutions: University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institutes of Science and Development

Language: English

Topic: Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Subfield: Management Science and Operations Research

Field: Decision Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: bronze