Work

Business As Usual Versus Climate-responsive, Optimised Crop Plans – A Predictive Model for Irrigated Agriculture in Australia in 2060

Year: 2023

Type: article

Abstract: Climate change is impacting people’s lives, with management of water resources and food security being major concerns for the future of many countries. In this paper, future water availability, crop water needs, yields, market costs and returns of current crops in a case study area in Australia are evaluated under future climatic conditions. The predictive methods on which the work is based have the advantage of being robust—they are able to simultaneously consider many climate change models—giving greater confidence in determining what the future will hold in this regard. The results indicate business as usual, in terms of the quantity and types of crops that can be grown presently, will not be sustainable in the medium and long term future. Instead, modelling indicates that changes in production and land use to maximise revenue per megalitre of water will be needed to adapt to future conditions and deliver climate-smart agriculture.

Source: Water Resources Management

DOI: 10.1007/s11269-023-03472-6

Authors: Andrew Lewis, James Montgomery, Max Lewis, Marcus Randall, Karin Schiller

Institutions: Griffith University, University of Tasmania, Bond University

Language: English

Topic: Climate change impacts on agriculture

Subfield: Agronomy and Crop Science

Field: Agricultural and Biological Sciences

Domain: Life Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Zero hunger, Clean water and sanitation

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,390