The influence of natural variability on extreme monsoons in Pakistan
Year: 2023
Type: article
Abstract: The monsoons in Pakistan have been exceptionally harsh in recent decades, resulting in extraordinary drought conditions and record flooding events. The changing characteristics of extreme events are widely attributed to climate change. However, given this region’s long history of floods and droughts, the role of natural climate variability cannot be rejected without a careful diagnosis. Here, we examine how oceanic and atmospheric variability has contributed to unusual precipitation distributions in West South Asia. Variations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and northern Arabian Sea, and internal atmospheric variability related to the circumglobal teleconnection pattern and the subtropical westerly jet stream, explain more than 70% of monthly summer precipitation variability in the 21st century. Several of these forcings have co-occurred with record strength during episodes of extreme monsoons, which have exacerbated the overall effect. Climate change may have contributed to increased variability and the in-phase co-occurrences of the identified mechanisms, but further research is required to confirm any such connection.
Institutions: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Stanford University, University of Tennessee at Knoxville, Washington State University Vancouver, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Northeastern University, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, Tufts University
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,290
OpenAlex ID: W4386931971