Work

Estimating fertility using adults: A method for under‐enumerated pre‐adult skeletal samples

Year: 2023

Type: article

Abstract: OBJECTIVES: Infant underrepresentation poses a great risk to accurate palaeodemographic findings when analyzing skeletal samples. Empirically derived palaeodemographic methods all require unbiased or minimally biased pre-adult representation for estimating demographic characteristics, including fertility. Currently, there are no reliable methods for estimating palaeodemographic parameters when pre-adults are underrepresented in skeletal samples, consequently such samples are often excluded from palaeodemographic analyses. The aim of this article is to develop a method for estimating total fertility rate (TFR) using reproductive aged adults, specifically for samples with suspected pre-adult under-enumeration. METHODOLOGY: United Nations mortality data and TFR from the World Population Prospects was utilized. The correlation between known fertility and the proportion of individuals in key reproductive years (15-49 years) to total adult sample (15+ years) was assessed as an indirect means to estimate fertility. RESULTS: It was determined that the proportion of reproductive aged adults is a reasonable proxy for fertility. A significant positive correlation was observed between the TFR and those who died aged 15-49 years of age as a proportion of those who died ≥15 years (D15-49/D15+). SE of the estimate revealed reasonable predictive accuracy. When applied to two modern non-agricultural populations, the method showed some variability in accuracy but good potential for an improved outcome over existing methods when pre-adults are underrepresented. CONCLUSION: This research has provided a new method for estimating fertility in archeological skeletal samples with pre-adult under-enumeration. In combination with a contextually focused approach, this provides a significant step toward further use of biased samples in palaeodemography.

Source: American Journal of Biological Anthropology

DOI: 10.1002/ajpa.24739

Authors: Bonnie R. Taylor, Marc Oxenham, Clare McFadden

Institutions: Australian National University, University of Aberdeen

Language: English

Topic: Forensic Anthropology and Bioarchaeology Studies

Subfield: Archeology (arts and humanities)

Field: Arts and Humanities

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Good health and well-being

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $4,840