Year: 2023
Type: preprint
Abstract: The beekeeping sector has experienced significant production fluctuations in recent years, largely due to increasingly frequent adverse weather events linked to climate change. These events can severely affect the environment, reducing its suitability for bee activity. We conduct a forecasting analysis of honey production across Italy using a range of machine learning models, with a particular focus on weather-related variables as key predictors. Our analysis relies on a dataset collected in 2022, which combines hive-level observations with detailed weather data. We train and compare several linear and nonlinear models, evaluating both their predictive accuracy and interpretability. By examining model explanations, we identify the main drivers of honey production. We also ensemble models from different families to assess whether combining predictions improves forecast accuracy. These insights support beekeepers in managing production risks and may inform the development of insurance products against unexpected losses due to poor harvests.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Language: English
Topic: Smart Agriculture and AI
Subfield: Plant Science
Domain: Life Sciences
SDG: Zero hunger
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W4362655262