The National COVID-19 Epi Model (NCEM): Estimating cases, admissions and deaths for the first wave of COVID-19 in South Africa
Year: 2023
Type: article
Abstract: In March 2020 the South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium was formed to support government planning for COVID-19 cases and related healthcare. Models were developed jointly by local disease modelling groups to estimate cases, resource needs and deaths due to COVID-19. The National COVID-19 Epi Model (NCEM) while initially developed as a deterministic compartmental model of SARS-Cov-2 transmission in the nine provinces of South Africa, was adapted several times over the course of the first wave of infection in response to emerging local data and changing needs of government. By the end of the first wave, the NCEM had developed into a stochastic, spatially-explicit compartmental transmission model to estimate the total and reported incidence of COVID-19 across the 52 districts of South Africa. The model adopted a generalised Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed structure that accounted for the clinical profile of SARS-COV-2 (asymptomatic, mild, severe and critical cases) and avenues of treatment access (outpatient, and hospitalisation in non-ICU and ICU wards). Between end-March and early September 2020, the model was updated 11 times with four key releases to generate new sets of projections and scenario analyses to be shared with planners in the national and provincial Departments of Health, the National Treasury and other partners. Updates to model structure included finer spatial granularity, limited access to treatment, and the inclusion of behavioural heterogeneity in relation to the adoption of Public Health and Social Measures. These updates were made in response to local data and knowledge and the changing needs of the planners. The NCEM attempted to incorporate a high level of local data to contextualise the model appropriately to address South Africa's population and health system characteristics that played a vital role in producing and updating estimates of resource needs, demonstrating the importance of harnessing and developing local modelling capacity.
Source: PLOS Global Public Health
Institutions: University of Cape Town, University of Oxford, Stellenbosch University, Boston University, University of the Witwatersrand, FIND, Amsterdam UMC Location University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam University Medical Centers, National Health Laboratory Service, National Institute for Communicable Diseases
Language: English
Subfield: Modeling and Simulation
Field: Mathematics
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,100
Awards: Developing model applications to support national malaria elimination strategies, EVIDENCE IS A PROGRAM OF APPLIED RESEARCH AND EVALUATION, INCLUDING COST AND COST EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS, COST MODELING, AND EPIDEMIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS, AIMED AT ASSISTING THE GOVERNMENT OF SOUTH AFRICA TO ACHIEVE THE GOALS OF ITS NATIONAL STRATEGIC PLAN ON HIV, TB AND STIS 2017-2022, NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL 90-90-90 TARGETS, AND PEPFAR OBJECTIVES., G549236285, G8607076755
OpenAlex ID: W4366819626