National quantifications of methane emissions from fuel exploitation using high resolution inversions of satellite observations
Year: 2023
Type: article
Abstract: Reducing methane emissions from fossil fuel exploitation (oil, gas, coal) is an important target for climate policy, but current national emission inventories submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are highly uncertain. Here we use 22 months (May 2018-Feb 2020) of satellite observations from the TROPOMI instrument to better quantify national emissions worldwide by inverse analysis at up to 50 km resolution. We find global emissions of 62.7 ± 11.5 (2σ) Tg a−1 for oil-gas and 32.7 ± 5.2 Tg a−1 for coal. Oil-gas emissions are 30% higher than the global total from UNFCCC reports, mainly due to under-reporting by the four largest emitters including the US, Russia, Venezuela, and Turkmenistan. Eight countries have methane emission intensities from the oil-gas sector exceeding 5% of their gas production (20% for Venezuela, Iraq, and Angola), and lowering these intensities to the global average level of 2.4% would reduce global oil-gas emissions by 11 Tg a−1 or 18%.
Source: Nature Communications
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $6,290
Awards: G5252205656, WE PROPOSE TO CONTINUE OUR WORK ON THE NASA CMS SCIENCE TEAM TO IMPROVE KNOWLEDGE OF METHANE EMISSIONS IN NORTH AMERICA AND GLOBALLY THROUGH THE EXPLOITATION OF SATELLITE DATA AND IN SERVICE TO STAKEHOLDERS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE NEED TO ASSESS GAPS IN NATIONAL METHANE EMISSION INVENTORIES INCLUDING CONTRIBUTIONS FROM DIFFERENT SECTORS. THE RESUMED GROWTH IN GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC METHANE OVER THE PAST DECADE HAS ATTRACTED MUCH ATTENTION BUT ITS CAUSE IS STILL BEING DEBATED. OUR WORK WILL ADVANCE UNDERSTANDING BY BRIDGING THE GAP BETWEEN TOP-DOWN INFORMATION FROM ATMOSPHERIC METHANE OBSERVATIONS (SATELLITE AND SUBORBITAL) AND BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION FROM PROCESS-BASED INVENTORIES. WE WILL USE STATE-OF-SCIENCE POLICY-RELEVANT NATIONAL EMISSION INVENTORIES INCLUDING ERROR ESTIMATES TO SERVE AS PRIOR INFORMATION IN INVERSIONS OF SATELLITE DATA FROM GOSAT (2009-PRESENT) AND TROPOMI (2017 LAUNCH). FROM THERE WE WILL BE ABLE TO EVALUATE THESE INVENTORIES AND PROVIDE GUIDANCE FOR IMPROVEMENTS. THE LONG HIGH-QUALITY RECORD FROM GOSAT WILL PROVIDE STRONG CONSTRAINTS ON REGIONAL SOURCES AND UNIQUE INSIGHT INTO THE FACTORS DRIVING THE METHANE TREND. TROPOMI WITH ITS GLOBAL DAILY COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO CONSIDERABLY INCREASE OUR ABILITY TO QUANTIFY METHANE EMISSIONS FROM SPACE INCLUDING SEASONAL VARIATIONS. OUR WORK WILL BUILD ON A STRONG COLLABORATION WITH EPA ALREADY DEVELOPED THROUGH CMS. THIS COLLABORATION HAS PRODUCED A SPATIALLY RESOLVED VERSION OF THE NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY (GHGI) INCLUDING SCALE-DEPENDENT ERROR ESTIMATES. WE WILL APPLY THIS INVENTORY AS PRIOR ESTIMATE FOR INVERSIONS OF SATELLITE DATA AND WORK WITH EPA IN THE INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS TO EVALUATE AND IMPROVE THE GHGI. WE HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED AN ENSEMBLE-BASED GLOBAL WETLAND EMISSION INVENTORY (WETCHARTS) THAT WE WILL USE IN OUR INVERSIONS TO NARROW UNCERTAINTY IN BIOGEOCHEMICAL PROCESS CONTROLS. WE WILL DEVELOP NEW COLLABORATIONS WITH ENVIRONMENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CANADA (ECCC) AND THE MEXICAN INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE ECOLOG A Y CAMBIO CLIM TICO (INECC) TO PRODUCE SPATIALLY RESOLVED VERSIONS OF THEIR NATIONAL INVENTORIES ENABLING EVALUATION OF THESE INVENTORIES WITH SATELLITE DATA THROUGH OUR INVERSION FRAMEWORK. WE WILL APPLY INNOVATIVE INVERSE METHODS TO ACHIEVE HIGH-RESOLUTION CONSTRAINTS ON METHANE EMISSIONS AND TRENDS FOR NORTH AMERICA AND GLOBALLY WITH FULL ERROR CHARACTERIZATION. SUBORBITAL DATA (NOAA TCCON SITES; ATOM SONGNEX CARVE SEAC4RS ACT-AMERICA AIRCRAFT CAMPAIGNS) WILL BE USED AT ALL STAGES OF THE ANALYSIS. SPECIFIC TASKS FOR THE PROJECT WILL INVOLVE: (1) INTERPRET THE GOSAT SATELLITE RECORD (2009-PRESENT) USING ADVANCED INVERSE METHODS AND TOGETHER WITH SUBORBITAL DATA TO CONSTRAIN METHANE EMISSIONS AND THEIR TRENDS WITH FULL ERROR CHARACTERIZATION GLOBALLY AND FOR NORTH AMERICA AT HIGH RESOLUTION; (2) APPLY INVERSION RESULTS TO EVALUATE NATIONAL METHANE INVENTORIES FOR THE US CANADA AND MEXICO WORKING IN COLLABORATION WITH EPA ECCC AND INECC; (3) NARROW UNCERTAINTIES IN WETLAND EMISSIONS AND THE UNDERLYING PROCESS CONTROLS BY APPLYING INVERSION ERROR REDUCTIONS TO A LARGE ENSEMBLE OF BOTTOM-UP INVENTORIES; (4) START INTERPRETING TROPOMI OBSERVATIONS AS SOON AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE (EXPECTED MID-2018) TO IMPROVE TOP-DOWN CONSTRAINTS ON METHANE EMISSIONS INCLUDING SEASONAL INFORMATION. PI DANIEL JACOB AND CO-I ANTHONY BLOOM WILL SERVE ON THE CMS SCIENCE TEAM AND WILL BE ENGAGED IN SPECIFIC COLLABORATIVE AND SERVICE ACTIVITIES AS PART OF THE TEAM. JACOB WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD THE CMS METHANE WORKING GROUP.
OpenAlex ID: W4385855877