Mortality burden and its spatial heterogeneity due to ambient temperature in a low latitude plateau area: a time-series study in all 129 counties of Yunnan province (Preprint)
Year: 2023
Type: preprint
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: BACKGROUND The relationship between climate change and human health has become one of the major worldwide public health issues. OBJECTIVE This study evaluated the effect of ambient temperature on the mortality burden of non-accidental deaths in Yunnan Province and further explored its spatial heterogeneity among different regions. METHODS We collected mortality and meteorological data from all 129 counties in Yunnan Province from 2014 to 2020, and 16 prefecture-level cities were analyzed as units. A distributed lagged nonlinear model was utilized to estimate the effect of temperature exposure on years of life lost (YLL) for non-accidental deaths in each prefecture-level city. The effect of ambient temperature on the total attributable fraction (AF) for death was calculated. A multivariate meta-analysis was applied to obtain an overall aggregated estimate of effects and spatial heterogeneity among 16 prefecture-level cities was evaluated by adjusting the city-specific geographical characteristics, demographic characteristics, economic factors, and health resources factors. RESULTS The temperature-YLL association was nonlinear and followed slide-shaped curves in all regions. The cumulative extreme cold and mild cold effects along lag 0–21 days on YLL due to non-accidental deaths were 166.96 (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI] 45.76–288.17) and 47.57 (95% eCI 3.58–91.55), respectively. The AF for non-accidental deaths due to daily mean temperature was 5.99% (95% eCI 3.15–8.37). Cold temperature was responsible for most of the mortality burden (4.29% [95% eCI 2.78–5.67]), while the burden due to heat was low and non-significant. The vulnerable subpopulations include males, age <75, farmers, ethnic minorities, and patients with cardiovascular or respiratory diseases. Moreover, 48.2% heterogeneity in the effect of mean temperature on YLL was found after considering the inherent characteristics of the 16 prefecture-level cities. CONCLUSIONS This study suggests that the cold effect dominated the total effect of temperature on mortality burden, and its effect was heterogeneous among different regions, which provides a basis for spatial planning and health policy formulation for disease prevention.
Authors: Qingying Zhang, Yang Chen, Lidan Zhou, Yuanyi Zha, Kai Wang, Lvliang Lu, Yujing Wang, Pi Guo
Language: English
Subfield: Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: gold
OpenAlex ID: W4385953691